Time-varying arrival rates

Model changing demand over the day instead of hiding peaks inside one average arrival rate.

On this page
  1. A daily average can hide the part that creates the queue
  2. Represent the rate as a function of time
  3. Estimate the profile at the resolution your decision needs
  4. Check counts as well as queues

A daily average can hide the part that creates the queue

A clinic may average 10 arrivals per hour across a day while receiving 18 per hour around lunch and 5 per hour late in the afternoon. A model using one constant rate can miss the peak queue completely.

Represent the rate as a function of time

A simple approach is a piecewise schedule: one arrival rate for each hour or operating period. A nonhomogeneous Poisson process is a standard model when arrivals remain independent but the rate changes with time.

λ(t) = arrival rate at simulation time t

Estimate the profile at the resolution your decision needs

Hourly bins may be enough for staffing by shift. A transport model may need much finer intervals. Do not create a noisy minute-by-minute rate from too little data.

Keep weekdays, weekends, seasons, or known event days separate when they have genuinely different demand patterns.

Check counts as well as queues

Before trusting downstream waiting times, compare simulated arrivals by time period with the observed counts used to build the profile.

References